< As I've mentioned before, this is cut and pasted from a Yahoo! Group I post to, so any reference to anyone in the message is likely directed towards on of the people on that group >
As expected, Terminator 3 didn't have very good opening numbers at the box office and I cleared my X2 +$0.5 mill vs T3 by more than $40 million... I actually caught it on opening night, and anyone who hasn't seen it should check it out -- not as good as T1 or T2, but a good addition to the series.
New lines are now up everywhere, here are my bets and thoughts:
Terminator 3, 2nd Weekened:
USD 19.9 million or less +150
USD 20 million to 23.9 million +140
USD 24 million to 28.9 million +170
USD 29 million or more +350
I originally had a very strong lean towards $24 to $28.9 million at +170, based on similar movies opening July 4th weekend that got decent reviews and how they did the following weekend. I went back and actually took a closer look however at what movies were coming out as competition that 2nd weekend:
*Men In Black: -41.1% ($25.94) --> Contact
*Armageddon: -34.7% ($28.76) --> Lethal Weapon 4
South Park: -52.2% ($21.05) --> American Pie
*Men In Black 2: -53.2% ($20.61) --> Road to Perdition, Reign of Fire, Halloween: Resurrection
*Cats and Dogs: -44.6% ($24.40) --> Legally Blonde, The Score, Final Fantasy
Wild Wild West: -53.8% ($20.35) --> American Pie, Arlington Road
*The Patriot: -31.2% ($30.30) --> Scary Movie
The * denotes the movie had "sneak preview" days a few days before the opening weekend, the % is the percent it dropped the 2nd weekend, the # in parenthesis is what Terminator 3 would do its 2nd weekend based on that %, and the movies to the right are the films that came out the weekend after the movie listed and might have competed with it.
This coming weekend Pirates of the Carribbean and League of Extraordinary Gentlemen are released -- both guy movies. Terminator 3 is also a predominantly male oriented movie... Nowhere on the list above is there an example of a July 4th film that was followed by 2 male-targetted movies (one of which has a big marketing push)... The closest I could see is Men In Black 2, which dips it back below that $24 million mark... My reccomendation on this one is pass, but if you want to take a side, take either the $20-$23.9 or the $24-28.9 million ranges.
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Kill Bill -$4 million
Seabiscuit +$4 million
Kill Bill is being marketed as Tarantino's "FOURTH FILM" like the guy is on level with Kubrick all of a sudden... His previous films haven't done too stellar at the box office for opening weekends:
True Romance: $4.02 (1254, $3208)
Jackie Brown: $9.29 (1370, $6782)
From Dusk Till Dawn: $10.24 (2004, $5110)
Pulp Fiction: $9.31 (1338, $6959)
Not really sure which of these "films" they are leaving out to make Kill Bill his "FOURTH FILM", but oh well... Just from looking at the previews, I doubt this will get a big marketing push from any distributor, and will likely be shown in around 1500-2000 theaters on opening weekend.
Seabiscuit is actually getting a lot of pre-release hype in most of the media outlets... I know a lot of you are horse racing fans, but the storyline in all likelihood won't appeal to mass audiences. I do think it gets a pretty decent theater count in the 2000+ range though, and with the marketing behind it and the Oscar buzz I think it will have a decent showing. Frankly from looking at the trailers of Kill Bill, it doesn't look *NEAR* as cool as Pulp Fiction or From Dusk Till Dawn did... But I'll be generous and give it a $11 million dollar opening weekend -- which is *very* generous... That still means Seabiscuit only has to hit $8 million, which comes out to be around $4000/theater, which I think is very doable for a movie thats got a lot of buzz around it.
I hate to do this more than a week in advance, because the theater counts could come out and I could be screwed before the weekend even starts if Seabiscuit has a very limited release, but I think its worth the risk with the line only at -115 now.
My Play: Seabiscuit +$4 million vs Kill Bill, -115 (Olympic)
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Only other play I like is on Pirates of the Caribbean... Originally I was going to stay away from this one, as I mentioned before with the T3-2nd weekend writeup -- there's a lot of variables... But this is getting a big marketing push, it is showing in a LOT of theaters, and all of the early reviews have been good/great. The only reason I'm a bit leary is that T3 will be competing directly with its main audience... But I'm gonna hope most of the real big Terminator 3 fanatics saw the movie in the first week and a half it was out... Plus, the parents are more likely to take their kids to a "Disney movie" about "pirates" than they are to Terminator 3... So I'm gonna hit up the OVER on this one.
My Play: Pirates of the Carribean OVER $38 million +140 (BoDog)
-Sound of Silence
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Movie Wagering YTD: 13-7, +22.60 units
PENDING: More stars, "The Hulk" or "Bad Boys 2": "The Hulk", -120
PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Pirates of the Caribbean" OVER $38 million, +140
As expected, Terminator 3 didn't have very good opening numbers at the box office and I cleared my X2 +$0.5 mill vs T3 by more than $40 million... I actually caught it on opening night, and anyone who hasn't seen it should check it out -- not as good as T1 or T2, but a good addition to the series.
New lines are now up everywhere, here are my bets and thoughts:
Terminator 3, 2nd Weekened:
USD 19.9 million or less +150
USD 20 million to 23.9 million +140
USD 24 million to 28.9 million +170
USD 29 million or more +350
I originally had a very strong lean towards $24 to $28.9 million at +170, based on similar movies opening July 4th weekend that got decent reviews and how they did the following weekend. I went back and actually took a closer look however at what movies were coming out as competition that 2nd weekend:
*Men In Black: -41.1% ($25.94) --> Contact
*Armageddon: -34.7% ($28.76) --> Lethal Weapon 4
South Park: -52.2% ($21.05) --> American Pie
*Men In Black 2: -53.2% ($20.61) --> Road to Perdition, Reign of Fire, Halloween: Resurrection
*Cats and Dogs: -44.6% ($24.40) --> Legally Blonde, The Score, Final Fantasy
Wild Wild West: -53.8% ($20.35) --> American Pie, Arlington Road
*The Patriot: -31.2% ($30.30) --> Scary Movie
The * denotes the movie had "sneak preview" days a few days before the opening weekend, the % is the percent it dropped the 2nd weekend, the # in parenthesis is what Terminator 3 would do its 2nd weekend based on that %, and the movies to the right are the films that came out the weekend after the movie listed and might have competed with it.
This coming weekend Pirates of the Carribbean and League of Extraordinary Gentlemen are released -- both guy movies. Terminator 3 is also a predominantly male oriented movie... Nowhere on the list above is there an example of a July 4th film that was followed by 2 male-targetted movies (one of which has a big marketing push)... The closest I could see is Men In Black 2, which dips it back below that $24 million mark... My reccomendation on this one is pass, but if you want to take a side, take either the $20-$23.9 or the $24-28.9 million ranges.
-----
Kill Bill -$4 million
Seabiscuit +$4 million
Kill Bill is being marketed as Tarantino's "FOURTH FILM" like the guy is on level with Kubrick all of a sudden... His previous films haven't done too stellar at the box office for opening weekends:
True Romance: $4.02 (1254, $3208)
Jackie Brown: $9.29 (1370, $6782)
From Dusk Till Dawn: $10.24 (2004, $5110)
Pulp Fiction: $9.31 (1338, $6959)
Not really sure which of these "films" they are leaving out to make Kill Bill his "FOURTH FILM", but oh well... Just from looking at the previews, I doubt this will get a big marketing push from any distributor, and will likely be shown in around 1500-2000 theaters on opening weekend.
Seabiscuit is actually getting a lot of pre-release hype in most of the media outlets... I know a lot of you are horse racing fans, but the storyline in all likelihood won't appeal to mass audiences. I do think it gets a pretty decent theater count in the 2000+ range though, and with the marketing behind it and the Oscar buzz I think it will have a decent showing. Frankly from looking at the trailers of Kill Bill, it doesn't look *NEAR* as cool as Pulp Fiction or From Dusk Till Dawn did... But I'll be generous and give it a $11 million dollar opening weekend -- which is *very* generous... That still means Seabiscuit only has to hit $8 million, which comes out to be around $4000/theater, which I think is very doable for a movie thats got a lot of buzz around it.
I hate to do this more than a week in advance, because the theater counts could come out and I could be screwed before the weekend even starts if Seabiscuit has a very limited release, but I think its worth the risk with the line only at -115 now.
My Play: Seabiscuit +$4 million vs Kill Bill, -115 (Olympic)
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Only other play I like is on Pirates of the Caribbean... Originally I was going to stay away from this one, as I mentioned before with the T3-2nd weekend writeup -- there's a lot of variables... But this is getting a big marketing push, it is showing in a LOT of theaters, and all of the early reviews have been good/great. The only reason I'm a bit leary is that T3 will be competing directly with its main audience... But I'm gonna hope most of the real big Terminator 3 fanatics saw the movie in the first week and a half it was out... Plus, the parents are more likely to take their kids to a "Disney movie" about "pirates" than they are to Terminator 3... So I'm gonna hit up the OVER on this one.
My Play: Pirates of the Carribean OVER $38 million +140 (BoDog)
-Sound of Silence
-----
Movie Wagering YTD: 13-7, +22.60 units
PENDING: More stars, "The Hulk" or "Bad Boys 2": "The Hulk", -120
PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Pirates of the Caribbean" OVER $38 million, +140
